But we're making a call to the bullpen and asking five MLB.com writers to give it their best shot. Ronald Acuna Jr. will be back before too long and joins a lineup that still features Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley, Dansby Swanson and Eddie Rosario. Instead, the club went 81-81 and missed the postseason, finishing 11 games behind the upstart Guardians. Bostons bullpen isnt among the best in the American League and its starting rotation lacks quality depth, especially with Chris Sale on IL. It does not expect full seasons out of both Trout and Ohtani, who have not in their four years together each had seasons where they both appeared in at least 120 games. Compared to the Brewers and Cardinals, the Cubs dont stack up and thats even after signing outfielder Seiya Suzuki. With Chris Bassitt, Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer lined up . The increase in the number of teams losing on purpose has left a lot more wins for the good teams to grab. The moves bythe Marlinsmight not have been as splashy as the Mets or Phillies, but don't sleep on the additions they made this offseason. Plus, in the NL West, the Dodgers are awesome and the Giants are coming off a 107-win season. The NL Central has not had a team repeat as division winner since the Cubs repeated in first place in 2016 and 2017. The Cubsare engaging in a rebuild/reload to try and keep the team competition, while also building up its young core again. That is, we'll list the win total for the 2022 season from Caesars Sportsbook and pick whether the team will win more (the "over") or fewer (the "under") games. The top of the rotation remains dominant with Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola, and the biggest weakness the bullpen was improved with the signings of Brad Hand, Jeurys Familia and Corey Knebel. But the top two teams in the NL are the same as last year's: the Dodgers and Giants. They added Cy Young winner Robbie Ray and 2021 All-Stars in Adam Frazier and Jesse Winker Nobody really knows what to make of theAngels. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. The Phillies enter the season probably, objectively, a worse team than both the Braves and Mets in the NL East. The two big prospects in the Trea Turner/Scherzer trade, Josiah Gray will slot into the rotation and Keibert Ruiz should become the everyday catcher. They've got that again in 2022. 2 spot. Way-Too-Early 2022 MLB Predictions. Someone is going to have to take the crown away fromthe Astrosbefore anyone, even the model, would consider picking against them. Instead, they missed the playoffs. The bullpen is, well, the Phillies bullpen. PECOTA, however, sees a sizable gap of roughly five games between them, with the Mets on top. Chicago averaged nearly five runs a game with injuries limiting . As much as I love Shane McClanahan, he won't be carrying an ace workload. The reason the model likes the Cardinals over Milwaukee comes from the lack of trust in the Brewers' lineup, but if Willy Adames can repeat and Christian Yelich can bounce back somewhere closer to his 2019 levels, it could have just enough to support Milwaukee's tremendous pitching staff. The rotation might be even better in 2022 with the return of Mike Soroka to join Max Fried, Ian Anderson, Charlie Morton and Huascar Ynoa. This offseason, they're doing their part to make sure they don't miss the wild card this time. Close. The Rangerswere the talk of the offseason before the lockout when they made two major splashy signings in bringing in Corey Seager and Marcus Semien to produce maybe the best middle-infield combination in baseball. 9:55 am ET, MLB rumors: Dodgers, Yankees seek depth after injuries, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to miss WBC with knee injury, Kik Hernndez recounts on-field bathroom accident, Phillies top prospect Andrew Painter has tender elbow, Max Scherzer fools hitter with new pitch clock rules, Report: Padres looking to extend Juan Soto, Josh Hader, MLB win totals for every team, best bets on over-unders, Phillies top prospect Painter has elbow tenderness, Report: Padres looking to extend Soto, Hader, Report: Mets to use six-man rotation at times in 2023, Dodgers SS Gavin Lux tears ACL, will miss entire season. Joey Votto has never hit 40 homers in a season. The Phillies Will Need The Long Ball For A Long Shot World Series Comeback . The NL Central is mediocre, at best, and the Cardinals are a part of the mediocrity. April 7, 2022 2:14pm More On: mlb preview 2022 MLB video preview: Joel Sherman and Mike Vaccaro on who to watch, what's changing and how far Yankees and Mets can go in 2022 Just when everyone thoughtthe Rockiesmight be headed toward a rebuild, they go out and make a big splash by signing Kris Bryant. They didn't re-sign Miley and traded away franchise icons Winker and Suarez in a salary dump before signing Tommy Pham, Donovan Solano, Colin Moran and trading for Mike Minor. Three key contributors in the lineup Brandon Crawford, Brandon Belt, Mike Yastrzemski are 30 or older, and while they aren't getting younger, their bats certainly did not appear any slower in 2021. The problem is so often health, and that is the concern the model has for the Angels. Now in the new year, they'll have a target on their backs as several teams loaded up this offseason with the goal of avoiding a repeat champion. Bo Bichette is talented enough to take another step forward and join Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. as an MVP contender. 3. If Jack Flaherty is unavailable for a majority of the season, though, that significantly changes the Cardinals outcome. Now, did that stop us from asking a number of MLB . The offense is stacked with names like Luis Robert, Tim Anderson, Yoan Moncada and Jose Abreu. Statistical data provided by Gracenote. From the starting rotation to the lineup, Los Angeles holds the advantages and its farm system is better. Last year, Casey Mize, Matt Manning and Tarik Skubal got a taste of the big leagues and showed promise, and will be expected to take it a step farther in 2022. With Sean Manaea also gone, its even easier to predict fewer wins. The model isn't too favorable on them jumping right back into contention in 2022. But just who will it be that claims the Commissioner's Trophy at the end of the year? by Handedness. Corey Kluber is 36. Welcome to our NHL projections and probabilities page where you will find each team's projected . The AL playoff picture will likely not come as a surprise. The East looks like a potential power in the National League, as well as the American League. Were using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. The Philadelphia Phillies committed to spending money this offseason, improving the lineup with Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos. Fernando Tatis Jr. is one of the brightest stars when he's healthy and Manny Machado gives him powerful protection in the lineup. If that happens, Tampa Bay is in business. This year, no one will sleep on the Mariners. They'll be one of the best home teams in baseball this year. Nov. 4, 2022. Pitching depth will be crucial because of the compressed training period before the regular season starts. As for Colorado, signing Kris Bryant feels like a move for ticket sales as this is still one of the worst teams in MLB. Julio Rodriguez, who earned a spot on the MLB roster, can win Rookie of the year and make a significant 2022 impact. For now, well be focused on development for the young pitchers and the eventual debuts of Spencer Torkelson and Riley Greene. If the snake-bitten franchise gets full seasons from Anthony Rendon, Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani and Noah Syndergaard, its a no-doubt playoff team. Case in point, Jon Lester had a 4.36 ERA compared to a 5.40 FIP in 12 starts last season after they acquired him and he's now retired. There is going to be some competition in Texas soon enough for the AL West crown. After winning 99 games in 2022, the Yankees were able to re-sign Aaron Judge and Anthony Rizzo in free agency, and they inked All-Star lefty Carlos Rodnto a six-year contract. This is tough. Wed be even higher on this team because of its exciting rotation, if not for the fact Phillys defense is the worst in baseball. We felt great about New Yorks rotation trio and even liked some of the depth behind it. The key tothe Giants'success in 2021 was a standout rotation. Across the division, the Twins had a perplexing winter. Minnesota traded Josh Donaldson and others to free up room to sign prized free-agent shortstop Carlos Correa. All Rights Reserved. MLB. The Raysare that team that is constantly underloved by metrics and subsequently overperforms. All Rights Reserved. PECOTA is much less bullish on the Giants, giving them a winning percentage below .500 and less than a 1% chance of winning the division. From back-to-back division champions to the cellar, the Twins'tumble in 2021 came as a shock after looking like a dominant team in each of the prior two years. Most of all, the Rockies will continue to flex their muscles in Coors Field, where they were 48-33 last season. Adley Rutschman and Grayson Rodriguez aren't far away from reaching the majors, and bats like Cedric Mullins, Trey Mancini and Ryan Mountcastle have already proven they can mash in the big leagues. However, the starting rotation just doesnt seem good enough in a long season. I'm not a Phillies fan. The team will also get another look at breakout star Jazz Chisholm in his second year of action. The return of spring weather brings hope for every team. Milwaukee has made the playoffs four years in a row, a streak that should continue as the Cardinals didn't do much to close the gap. With Seattle, Los Angeles, and Texas each loading up on talent this offseason, will the Carlos Correa-less Astros . Christian Yelich can only get better after . For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB. It has been a discouraging offseason forAthletics'fans, who watched their two core Matts traded off to the Blue Jays (Chapman) and Braves (Olson), and standout arms Sean Manaea and Chris Bassitt traded to the Padres and Mets, respectively. Our MLB projections will impact our projected postseason bracket. What is surprising, however, is that ZiPS also puts the Giants squarely in this race at 88-74. since the new labor deal came together on March 10, and his new 11-year, $182 million contract, seemingly have to prove themselves all over again, signing him to a seven-year, $182 million contract, Your California Privacy Rights/Privacy Policy. Robert Edwards-USA TODAY Sports. The rotation lost Robbie Ray but added Kevin Gausman and Yusei Kikuchi. As part of our year-round MLB coverage, we'll provide analysis, the latest news and MLB trade rumors . 6-keys: media/spln/mlb/reg/free/stories, at I don't know why, though. We also like the depth pieces added to the staff (Carlos Martinez, Matt Boyd) and it will prove crucial this year. The Seattle Mariners will win the AL West, just not this year. The 2020 World Series champions have +600 odds to lift the Commissioner's Trophy in 2022, while the Pirates, Orioles and Arizona Diamondbacks are tied for the lowest at +25000. Philadelphia Phillies (82-80) The bullpen (7.06 ERA in '20) won . I took the Rays' under (it was 86) last year and got badly burned. It might not matter right now, but it will cost them multiple games and potentially a playoff spot. Last Year's Record: 91-71 Over/Under: 92.5 The Blue Jays were just one game shy of making the postseason last year in a division that featured four teams winning more than 90 games. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver. The model does not expect the Brewers will emerge back on top in 2022. A complete list of this year's voters: . Major League Leaders . 1:51. Just looking around the NL West, there are two bad teams. Thats everything the Milwaukee Brewers already bring to the table. Nick Madrigal and Nico Hoerner are a promising young middle-infield combo, who should be big parts of the team's future. The model really likes the rotation with Steven Matz joining Adam Wainwright and Jack Flaherty, who could miss some time with a shoulder injury. Even after Gausman walked in free agency, San Francisco still returns Logan Webb, who is coming off a fantastic postseason, and bring back Anthony DeSclafani and Alex Wood. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Something is going to give there -- in terms of sending one team down to the mid-80s in wins, this time around -- and the Red Sox total is 85.5. Everyone wants to know who will win the World Series, and according to the model, the answer is Dodgers are the most likely champion. Those player stats are then merged in with their current teams to evaluate how good each team's lineups, rotation and bullpens will be in the 2022 season. They'll have thump. FIVE BIG QUESTIONS:AL East | AL Central | AL WestNL East | NL Central | NL West. Because of a below-average lineup, on its best days, the Marlins exciting rotation will be wasted. At least they have one of the best MLB lineups. Dropping $500 million on a new middle infield (Corey Seager and Marcus Semien)got plenty of attention for the Rangers An ongoing clearance sale has the Athletics expected to finish last,but Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas give Oakland a little bit of upward mobility if they don't get shipped off, too. Despite believing that the Astros are more likely to win the pennant, it sees the Rays as a slightly more likely team to win the World Series. The Red Soxsurprised some people with their run to the ALCS in 2021, and Boston expects to be back in the mix for the playoffs again in 2022. . Key player: Luis Robert. 2022 MLB preseason predictions: World Series, MVP and Cy Young bets we're counting on this year. But that quickly changed, and the result was a disappointing 77-85 season. If the rookies can play up to their projections and immediately become impact talents, this could be an underrated team in 2022. New York Mets. With Shane Baz, Yonny Chirinos and Tyler Glasnow out from possible rotation spots in addition to relievers Nick Anderson and Pete Fairbanks, that's a lot of slack that needs picking up. There's certainly a void in the lineup without Tatis (and once his wrist is fully recovered, do we trust his shoulder to stay put the rest of the way?) CLE Cleveland Guardians. MORE:Cody Bellinger is struggling again, but Dodgers are so good that it might not matter. Add them together with JT Realmuto, Rhys Hoskins and Jean Segura, and this is a deep lineup capable of doing plenty of damage. To join our email list and get notified when we launch the 2023 MLB section, register for a free account . Mega Picker; . The tip-off is set for 7:30 pm ET at Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse. Toronto has the best odds of winning the pennant at 16.9 percent, while the White Sox and Astros trail narrowly behind at 15.2 and 13.9 percent, respectively. ZiPS projects both the Mariners and Angels for 85 wins, putting the two clubs in a tie for the third AL Wild Card spot behind the Blue Jays and Rays. Clayton Kershaw has struggled to stay healthy, but has been dominant when on the mound. The Records are updated Live on the MLB Standings after each game finishes. So does former wunderkind Alex Reyes. The model narrowly projects there to be three teams in the NL East reach the playoffs, with the Mets and Phillies earning wild cards to join the division-winning Padres. We saw the Houston Astros add another division title to their collection last season despite the surprise surge from the Seattle Mariners. The pitching staff is worrisome. Newcastle United vs Manchester City. If it's the 2022-23 Premier League table you're after, you've come to the right place. As for the Rays, the Wander Franco hype is real. The model isn't as bullish on San Diego as others due to concerns over Tatis' ability to play a full season and the depth in the lineup, but it's easy to see this being the magical year for which many have been waiting. Tampa Bay Rays 98-64 2. Corbin Burnes won the Cy Young with a sterling 2.43 ERA, and he was joined in the sub-3.00 ERA club by Brandon Woodruff (2.56) and Freddy Peralta (2.81). O/U wins: 91.5. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors After adding closer Craig Kimbrel, the gap between Los Angeles and its NL West foes is even wider. Today's MLB slate is very busy, and the first game is at 3:10 pm ET. Three got there in both 2018 and 2017. Justin Verlander is back and were expecting healthy seasons out of Kyle Tucker, Yordan Alvarez and Alex Bregman. No one saw the San Francisco Giants being that good last season, they surpassed their wildest expectations. 5 min read. My hunch this year is they'll be less extreme and steadily work toward somewhere in the low-to-mid 80s in wins. LAA Los Angeles Angels. 5 starter. The Los Angeles Dodgers might have lost the NL West in 2021, but theres no doubt this is the best team in the division entering the 2022 season. I do think this team is better and on the right track, but I don't think they'll have the kind of "luck" they did last season, say, in one-run games. 3 (Freddy Peralta) and a potential Rookie of the year candidate (Aaron Ashby). And while the Rays have been able to work around stuff like this the last several years, I don't believe they have the same combination of depth and talent in the bullpen to absorb the starter workload shortfall. The Piratesremain fully in rebuild mode, but the young talent in the system is starting to reach the big leagues. Sign In. I like getting late in the signing process and just going offense by adding Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos to Bryce Harper et al in the lineup, though. PECOTA views the Bronx Bombers as heavy favorites in the AL East, with Toronto projected for roughly nine fewer wins. Let's start things off with a prediction about one of my favorite players to target in fantasy baseball drafts. March 4, 2023 7:30 am EDT. Support FanGraphs. The Rockieswere surprisingly the top suitor for Kris Bryant, signing him to a seven-year, $182 million contract Has a team ever lost 110 games as quietly as the Diamondbacks last year? 15 seasons. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. Bellinger is coming off of a dreadful 2021 campaign that saw . ET. But after an offseason spent filling out their roster with solid role players, ZiPS and PECOTA both think they have a good chance to break their ignominious drought in 2023. The model's outlook of the AL Central is perhaps what differs from conventional wisdom the most in its projections. The 2022 Major League Baseball season is nearly upon us. The amount of money the Mets have dished out is absurd. The . Before long, Hayes will soon be joined on the left side of the infield by towering shortstop Oneil Cruz. Maybe this time I'm right and things have caught up with them. But there was actually a lot that went wrong with the Padres' pitching staff last season and they were still 67-49 through Aug. 10, a pace of 94 wins, before melting down the rest of the way. We know there are moving parts and differences every single season and the Blue Jays have to replace the career year from Marcus Semien. Pollock is a net win, given Chicagos needs, but the Garrett Crochet injury (Tommy John surgery) is a huge blow. Jesse Yomtov. The predicted standings for each team are the average wins and losses in the 20,000 simulations. With the last few days of build up comes all kinds of predictions, picks, best bets and the like. Chicago still finishes atop the AL Central in our MLB predictions, but the separation is decreasing. The reigning World Series winners emerge as the favorites to win their division, with New York and Philadelphia appearing as strong contenders for wild cards. While Atlanta lost longtime franchise fixture Freddie Freeman, it replaced him with Matt Olson from the A's, who should be able to more than match the power output of the former MVP. This is an admittedly risky venture. That's because Major League Baseball is on a run of 100-win teams. MLB, NBA, CBB, GOLF, NHL, HORSE RACING AND MORE - PLUS ADVANCED COMPUTER SIMULATIONS, WINNING .
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